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image prot: Commentaries: Gartner: Time Is Now for VoIP image
Protocols
Gartner: Time Is Now for VoIP
By Tim Greene

Gartner told attendees that IP telephony is ready for deployment technologically, but business concerns might override making the shift in some companies. The cost of the phones is a major issue.

Bringing voice over IP into corporate networks is inevitable, so businesses should be well on their way to at least testing the technology according to Gartner.

This year, for the first time, sales of communications servers that support IP are expected to exceed sales of traditional PBXs that don't, Gartner analysts said last week at the company's annual Symposium/ITxpo,And by 2006 sales of traditional PBXs will be relatively insignificant, they said.

With that shift, IT departments should have IP voice gear running in pockets in their networks, even if their companies have no firm plans to adopt it, users say.

I think it would be foolish not to have that option, says James Lieupo, network administrator for Florida's Department of Veterans Affairs. Lieupo has installed Avaya Software's IP-capable voice gear in the department's six nursing homes.

IP Voice Is Coming

Even though they are performing as traditional TDM key systems, IP voice is coming, he says.

He is looking to run IP voice on the state data network as a cost-cutting measure. Also, the state is seeking bids for its voice backbone, and he predicts that some of the proposals will include IP services.

Similarly, Watkins Motor Lines in Lakeland, Fla., started experimenting with Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) IP phones two years ago to become familiar with the technology says Dave Lichtel, the company's telecom director. Now it has bought Cisco Call Center gear to replace aging PBX equipment. The company plans to use the gear to expand its help desk and call center functionality by integrating phone calls with on-screen data displays about callers. The cost of going with IP vs. TDM was about a wash.

The IP gear also can streamline the company's interactive voice response (IVR) and Web-based shipment-tracking systems. Callers with the old IVR can find the whereabouts of their shipments over the phone, and they can get the same information on a Web page. But with IP voice, the data can be stored on one server , Lichtel says.

Looking Into IP Telephony

The company is a Cisco shop, and its routers include IP voice features imbedded in IOS that will pave the way to an eventual company-wide IP telephony rollout. It's something we will exploit in the future, he says.

The IS director for a major hardware chain, who asked not to be identified, says the company is looking into IP telephony via trials, and is attracted by potential cost savings. But, he says, with more than 1,000 stores, he has to be convinced the technology can handle such a large deployment reliably

Gartner told attendees that IP telephony is ready for deployment technologically, but business concerns might override making the shift in some companies. The cost of the phones is a major issue.

The cost of replacement telephones alone is reason enough to delay conversion of all desktops, said Jeff Snyder, a Gartner research vice president.Network readiness, voice security and policy/[quality of service] rule management add further costs to conversion, and require additional planning as well.

Upgrade Necessary

Snyder said most corporate IP data networks that are more than 3 years old will need to be upgraded if the company wants to run high-quality voice over it. That is the key issue Lieupo wants to come to an agreement with Florida's state SunCom data network before he tries passing voice traffic over it. If he gets the OK, he says he can save money I'm already paying for [the data network]. I'll have to see what the state will allow? he said.

Snyder cited three key reasons why businesses should shift to IP voice now:

Old PBXs are being replaced anyway

The company is moving to a new building and budget is available for the change.

IP voice offers business advantages that warrant the investment. 13#vety=2;enum=0; Taking the inside lane

The number of IP-capable voice systems sold in North America will surpass the number of pure, traditional phone systems by year-end, 160,000 to 110,000, Gartner says.

ECN
Posted on Sunday, 09 November 2003 @ 05:00:00 EST by phoenix22
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Re: Gartner: Time Is Now for VoIP (Score: 0)
by Anonymous  on Tuesday, 03 February 2004 @ 07:49:07 EST
A common thinking among Marketing people is that for every product that enters the market there must be a path, a target, a need ( real or created) that decides how the product must enter the consumer's life, which part of the population is more likely to go for it, which niche it is going to fill and, most important ...certain things being stated, something other than what is stated follows of necessity from their being so. and that is the final issue: the price.

Depending on those anavoidable patterns a product is more or less ready for a certain market.
High technologically devices, the ones that offer perfect quality and cost a fortune will target the elitarian market, where the price has not big importance (on the contrary, if the price would be lower than what certain people can afford, the product wouldn't reach them) since it means luxury.
When a product ceases to be luxury and begins to be a need, then the mass market is ready. The product can enter 60% of consumers' lives, reach easily a good upgrade in the percentage and become The New Product of the year 200.....

Let's consider the VoIP market.

Prior to recent theoretical work on social needs, the usual purpose of a product invoked individual (social) behaviors. We now know that these assumptions are not completely wrong.
Wrong would be NON considering them.

In systems where many people are free to choose between many options, a small subset of the whole offer will get a disproportionate amount of traffic (or attention, or income), even if no one of the system actively work towards such an outcome. This has nothing to do with moral weakness, selling out, or any other psychological explanation. The very act of choosing, spread widely enough and freely enough, creates a power law distribution.

Now, thanks to a series of breakthroughs in network theory by researchers we know that power law distributions tend to arise in social systems where many people express their preferences among many options. We also know that as the number of options rise, the curve becomes more extreme. This is a counter-intuitive finding - most of us would expect a rising number of choices to flatten the curve, but in fact, increasing the size of the system increases the gap between the #1 spot and the median spot.

In other words:
give to the people the choice among desktop phones and mobile phones and the majority will choose what they think more convenient, in spite of the cost of the service.
In a way the cost of the service is the only left advantage in favour of the fixed telephony.
If the price was the same the desktop phones would disappear from the life of the average consumer (mass market consumer).

To see how freedom of choice could create such unequal distributions, consider a hypothetical population of a thousand people, each picking their favorite way of telecommunication. One way to model such a system is simply to assume that each person has an equal chance of liking each kind of telephony. This distribution would be basically flat - most kind of telephony will have the same number of people listing it as a favorite. A few will be more popular than average and a few less, of course, but that will be statistical noise. The bulk of the telephony will be of average popularity, and the highs and lows will not be too far different from this average. In this model, neither the quality of the voice, the availability, the design of the device nor other people's choices have any effect; there are no shared tastes, no preferred genres, no effects from marketing or recommendations from friends.

This is the mass market of VoIP as dreamed and forecasted by most hardware producers.
People would choose VoIP in spite of the fact that the systems are not intercommunicating, the available phones are just desktop phones, most of the population doesn't have a Flat rate DSL and some do not even have a decent connection, (just one UP to...) and j

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